Greg's Milk Monitor 15 May 2025: Winners and losers

Both skim and whey are unchanged this week, as the not inconsiderable equal and opposing forces of supply and demand hold the market steady.

Whilst the picture shows who’s winning the battle for sweet whey supply, the feed industry is certainly the loser. The fact that WPC was developed to be a cheap protein alternative to expensive skim milk is now history, as WPC 35 has now surpassed skim by over €700, with supply still painfully scarce. The main reason is that processors are filling their towers with orders for WPC 80, and no wonder, as that little 500g packet above is retailing for £16. B2B prices have topped €15/kg in bulk, and this is starving WPC 35 and more so, the supply of feed grade for a humble €840.

This headlong rush into super-concentrated whey may of course end up in tears, as the edible market could end up in oversupply as it did with infant milk formula, so the pipeline for feed grade whey could become much easier. But hopes for deep discounting are pretty dim, given the price of liquid milk and the downturn in cheese production.

Feed grade skim milk is still a ridiculous €40 premium to edible grade, which is strange, given the decline in CMR demand and also a hike in the edible price of €20 this week.

Apart from the dearth of WPC35, the only other current headache for the milk powder blender is lactose, which is odd, as it used to be cheap as chips and easily available, but is now a premium to whey and with fewer processors in the market, and poor edible demand, stocks have disappeared.

In other markets, crude oil dipped into the high $50s last week, but the oil barons’ ball that is going on in the Middle East this week seems to have put a bit of backbone back into OPEC. Having said that, the House of Representatives is signing off a biofuel mandate that last until 2031, which put wind back in the sails of soy oil, shooting it back up into the low 50 cents range, but the reality of the huge South American crop has pulled it down into the high 40s again.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 8 May 2025: The privilege of plenty

As the markets are unchanged this week, perhaps a look back 80 years on the anniversary of VE Day is in order. Particularly milk, which was one of the staples rationed from 1940 until 14 years later, a staggeringly long time when looked at through today’s lens. Apparently cheese production was affected for several more years after 1954. 

Returning to the present, the continuation of the seemingly relentless demand for whey protein concentrate is still robbing the feed market of ample supply, and paid prices are still €20-30 over the headline price of €840 in Holland. This is a fundamental change in the supply line for animal feed, and looks likely to sustain, so no prospect of anything approaching a collapse in prices.

The rapacious demand for milk replacers has lasted a month longer than earlier thought, but spring has sprung and demand is now curtailing fast, so this may force skim milk lower into the summer and may rebalance sweet whey supply/demand. 

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 25 April 2025: More confusion

There’s more conflict than clarity in milk powder markets, in a week that saw potentially 245% tariffs being slapped on by China, and Donald Trump signalling he’d like talks about a trade deal.

Sweet whey climbed €10 against expectations, and skim fell by the same amount. There might be sense in these moves, as the Chinese have beaten a path to the European door to escape whatever tariff the White House decides to apply this week, lifting prices, but US processors have signalled that they will slash and burn prices to keep the S E Asian market, so the US market remains in free fall (the graph on shows the Q1 prices, before ‘Liberation Day’ on 3rd April)

Even if tariffs have a neutral effect on sweet whey, demand for edible whey protein concentrate is still increasing, diverting ever greater quantities for processing and limiting the supply to the feed sector. This is double-edged as far as CMRs are concerned, as although is might life whey prices, the chronic shortage of WPC is easing, and hopefully price with it. Considering WPC was developed as a cheap alternative to skim milk protein, but now commands a €300 premium, it seem unsustainable at the price level, but on the other hand, WPC has revalued itself as the go-to source for increasingly popular dairy protein only CMRs.

Skim has however returned to an oversupply situation, the flip side of withholding material to force the market higher. Downgrades are more freely available so we could see further declines into the later spring. But taking the whole basket of ingredients, and the unpredictable global political landscape, a wholesale slide in values does not look at all imminent, whilst increase looks more probable.

Crude oil is back on the downside, as OPEC members break ranks to flood the market, but soyabean oil is back up to nigh on 50 cents, nearly 20% higher over the last month. Palm oil has been revalued as the cheapest cooking medium and has turned upwards after the losses this week.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com