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Welcome to the BDC agri blog. Here you will find reports from some of the events we attend, as well as Greg's popular weekly view of the UK milk and whey powders market:

 

"Many years ago, I got my first job in the dairy industry, as class milk monitor at Tollesbury Primary School.
I thought it was a job for life, but sadly Margaret Thatcher famously ‘snatched’ free school milk,
and the nation’s health has suffered since. Fifty-four years later, I am still musing on the dairy industry,
with an irreverent view of politics and currency ..." G
reg Dunn



The answer to H G Wells’s conundrum is probably both.


The milk powder markets have outdone even their own recent performance with a spectacular leap higher this week; sweet whey up 4% (+€50) and skim milk up 2% (+€70).


OK, so palm oil might be up a tad on the week, but the soya complex is marking time unchanged, waiting for some late season rain in South America to cheer up the soya harvest, but there’s no discernible reason that supports the astronomical rise in milk powders.


The same situation remains, in that while sweet whey is hard to find, skim milk is freely available when the ransom price is paid. Teasing that apart, it is reasonable to suppose that the milk driers are charging what they like, which is not sustainable, lack of sweet whey supply does imply shortage of liquid milk. This price model could see skim milk level off before dropping, and the price gap between the two narrowing.


A cursory glance just now at the post PM's Question Time £:€ exchange rate shows €1. 1984, so another nod to H G Wells.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

So much for the New Year slide, demand remains reluctantly buoyant and the supply side is happily poking the market ever skywards.


Skim is €60 up from pre-Christmas levels, and now a staggering €400 higher from the beginning of November. Sweet whey is €30 and €200 higher commensurately, tracking skim milk at exactly 50% of value, so the markets have risen in tandem.


The background markets aren’t any prettier, with the soya complex higher over the fortnight on all three legs, with meal putting on a staggering $100 since the beginning of December. The only saving grace for this if you are buying in sterling is the buoyant pound, thanks to UK anti-lockdown sentiment.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com



Although the milk markets continue their independent upward trajectory, a big bounce in the soya complex hasn’t helped defuse the situation.


Sweet whey rises another €20, and skim milk €30, 1.7% and 1% respectively. Skim milk is at least available, having switched positions with whey, which becomes increasingly difficult to find.


News from around the world is that finally liquid milk prices have followed the rises in source raw materials, up to 42 cents in Holland and 46 cents in Poland and Eastern France. That won’t do anything to ease the derivatives market but at least gives more stability to the dairy model on farm. Another stark statistic is that pig feed production in China increased by 47% this year, albeit from a low base line because of ASF decimating the domestic pig herd, so Chinese whey purchases have definitely underpinned this hike.



BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com