25 July 2024: Quietude

Not quite the feeling when one has had one’s summer holiday before everyone else has had theirs, but more what is, or rather isn't, going on in the markets. 

In short it’s all unchanged, even though further easing was expected. Nothing beyond that worth reporting, as we are now in holiday central.

In background markets, crude oil has slipped back on hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, and taken soya and palm oil with it. Soya is interesting, as one admittedly large sale of half a million tonnes of beans has supported beans and meal, while soy oil has slipped back only about half the 14% hike seen at the beginning of July. Palm oil has likewise dipped but nothing to write home about. 

Sterling is enjoying a resurgence for buyers, but denting the export aspirations of milk powder sellers. 

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

4 July 2024: Traders, eh?

On the face of it, both skim and whey are unchanged, well, skim is down €10, so nothing, but there are rumblings of change. 

The German market is an unusual bellwether for market movement, but it is undercutting the headline Dutch market by about €20 on both products, and is some albeit scant evidence that producers recognise things are backing up in the warehouse. 

I’m told that there is much more of everything being offered by producers, permeate, whey and skim, but trader prices remain resolutely unchanged, presumably in the hope of shorting the market and buying in against sales when they switch horses and pull the plug. 

Looking at producer fundamentals, cheese prices are holding fair across Europe, so cheaper whey won’t unduly worry producers, but they’re never comfortable below the cost of production. Skim on the other hand is the byproduct of soaring butter prices, so it looks like there may be some slack in the byproduct.

 Background markets are gently firm, with crude oil steadily in the $80 bracket, with palm oil spiking due to an extraordinary mandate from the Indonesian government for 40% biofuel in diesel next year. That’s going to work, then, when the fatty acids eat the head gaskets…….

Oh, and I did look, there were apparently between six and eighteen yellow Reliant Regal Supervans used in the Only Fools and Horses franchise!

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

27 June 2024: Action replay

No big news this week, sweet whey unchanged but skim milk up €20. 

What is striking is the overlay of 2024 prices largely blanking out last year’s for both products

Nothing fundamental has changed, sellers are still strong, no discounts, but wheat gluten is back to full supply with no weakening in price. 

Other noteworthy markets are crude oil and wheat, which has plunged 22% in the past month in the US, on increased crop forecast, but globally the figure has decreased, with Russia reducing by 5mt and Ukraine by 1.5mt, due to the cold wet spring. Maize is down by half that amount and soybeans by 5%. Crude oil is still holding in the $80s, supporting both soy oil and palm.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com