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Welcome to the BDC agri blog. Here you will find reports from some of the events we attend, as well as Greg's popular weekly view of the UK milk and whey powders market:

 

"Many years ago, I got my first job in the dairy industry, as class milk monitor at Tollesbury Primary School.
I thought it was a job for life, but sadly Margaret Thatcher famously ‘snatched’ free school milk,
and the nation’s health has suffered since. Fifty-four years later, I am still musing on the dairy industry,
with an irreverent view of politics and currency ..." G
reg Dunn


Another week of gently lifting powder markets, whey up 2.5% at €820 and skim only €10 higher. Talk amongst the milk powder community in this week’s VIV MEA in Abu Dhabi reckons the Dutch and Eastern European sweet whey markets are something like €50 over the French or Irish prices. Availability is generally easy, which doesn’t usually signal a bull run, but trader manipulation shouldn’t be ruled out.


Speaking of which, there’s some producer manipulation seemingly going on in the fat filled whey market. The largest free market processor (not for in-house consumption) has hiked that market €150 higher and is starting to withhold material, which is unsurprising given how far beneath the skim milk market that fat filled has been trading all summer. It is usually about parity with skim, but has been at €300-400 discount, which is now rapidly narrowing.


Nothing much going on in soya, Brazil is behind on planting in arid soils, and China bought a record 4 million tonnes of US beans in a week, but the general feeling seems to be that when it does rain in Brazil, the complex will ease accordingly, given the record acreage. Palm oil has had a rally this month, but is coming off the boil as the Chinese soya oil market in Dalian is down, and India is scaling back palm purchases in December and January.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.


For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com





Well, that collapse didn’t last long, one week to be precise. Whey is unchanged at €800, and SMP a paltry €10 lower. No reliable intelligence as to why, no withdrawal of offers or signal of dwindling supply. The only news is that one of the few wheat gluten processors went on fire, knocking the factory out of production for four months, so expect a rally soon in that element of fat blends.


Soya has been on a bit of a rally, due to heavy Chinese purchases of US beans and the rain forecast for central Brazil not arriving, knocking a million tonnes off the 2024 crop estimate, and counting. Meal rallied the most, up another $20, but all three pits have come off the boil in the last couple of days. Palm likewise has rallied to two month highs, but is now subsiding slightly.


Plunging inflation figures have pressured both the dollar and the pound, despite the hawkish interest rate sentiments of both central banks.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.


For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com




I feel a bit like Robin from ‘Ghosts’, trying to work out where things are going at the moment. After the arch-manipulation by the Dutch whey market, it has suddenly halted and looked behind to see if any other markets are following. They are, Germany up €40, France up €45, but still below the Netherlands’ €840.


Skim is still ploughing on up, though, another 1% to just shy of €2600. Looking at the liquid milk market, the summer of discontent with producers facing the imbalance of high input costs versus low farm gate milk price has resulted in a fall of 3% in UK production. This may well force prices justifiably higher, which will not help in turn in pulling down milk powder values.


Looking at the wider market, news from SE Asia suggests milk powders are now too expensive against local pork markets, so usage will likely decrease, and this is a major global influencer.


Things are quiet in background markets, the US soy harvest is all but over, and rain is in the forecast in Brazil, and the soy complex sees beans about even, while meal stays high and oil dips. Palm oil is having one of its rare bouts of superiority, propelled higher by strong exports and Indonesian export controls to manage domestic food inflation, but as crude oil is now down to $80/barrel, there is little to support this rally.


The US and UK decisions to leave interest rates be has dampened the pound, still languishing in the mid €1.14s, so no help there.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.


For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com



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