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Welcome to the BDC agri blog. Here you will find reports from some of the events we attend, as well as Greg's popular weekly view of the UK milk and whey powders market:

 

"Many years ago, I got my first job in the dairy industry, as class milk monitor at Tollesbury Primary School.
I thought it was a job for life, but sadly Margaret Thatcher famously ‘snatched’ free school milk,
and the nation’s health has suffered since. Fifty-four years later, I am still musing on the dairy industry,
with an irreverent view of politics and currency ..." G
reg Dunn


There are definitely two camps at the moment, the producers/traders and the consumers. Here's what the producers reckon:


1. China ending lockdown in June will explode import demand for sweet whey and skim milk

2. Europe has been drier than the Nullabor Plain for months, milk production is very low

3. Demand remains high (?)

4. The largest producer in France is selling lots to the middle market


I won't bother to list the buyers' repudiation of each of the above points.


The plain facts are that both whey and skim dumped 3% of value in the last week, which is unusual in that for the second week running it is effectively in free fall, when markets usually rise fast and decline more slowly. What is worrying is that the rest of the related commodity basket had a quiet week, palm oil has dropped back to 60KMYR on the basis of 'burdensome stock inventory'. This is based on April figures before the Indonesian export ban was enacted, so we will probably see significantly larger exports in May, so the market will probably bounce by month-end.


So, if we think the milk powder market was plain overdone, this is a rapid correction, but as global grains have been raging, this bullish cycle hasn't burnt out yet and the moment volume demand kicks into the milk powder markets, we'll be off to the races upwards again.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com


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It was a good job that it was a soft commodity that hit Sir Isaac Newton on the head, otherwise we may never have learnt this truism. And gravity certainly has acted on milk powder markets over the past week, with both whey and skim milk both shedding nigh on 3% of value. Backgrounds markets have been quiet, and profit-taking has pulled palm oil down, despite Malaysia having to take up the slack in exports caused by the Indonesian ban.


Whilst the adage that there are more sellers than buyers is currently true, spot demand has returned, and the selling stampede is headed by the greediest of the traders desperate to unload downgrade material that they hung on to for too long. The supply/demand crisis on fat filled whey and hydrolysed wheat gluten has receded slightly because of marginally improved supply met by muted demand, but with no easing in price.


Where we go from here is complicated to predict, since global warming and geopolitics have returned foodstuffs from being lowly also-rans in the commodity world to the backbone of the global economy, so it is facile to link the current slide to the slump in global share indexes etc. The grain/oilseed export facilities in Odessa having been recently destroyed has limited downward potential in grain markets, and we’re not out of the woods yet for northern hemisphere spring rainfall, so this slide may not sustain from a correction into the hoped-for buyers’ revenge.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com