Welcome to the BDC agri blog. Here you will find reports from some of the events we attend, as well as Greg's popular weekly view of the UK milk and whey powders market:

 

"Many years ago, I got my first job in the dairy industry, as class milk monitor at Tollesbury Primary School.
I thought it was a job for life, but sadly Margaret Thatcher famously ‘snatched’ free school milk,
and the nation’s health has suffered since. Fifty-four years later, I am still musing on the dairy industry,
with an irreverent view of politics and currency ..." G
reg Dunn

The current milk powder market is in a vacuum, where no purchases or sales have happened, and prices are where traders think they might be. The Chinese market for sweet whey powder is silent, even Algeria too, where exports are usually quite brisk.


On the face of it, the Dutch market has dropped €20, or 2% in the last week, and skim milk fell by a surprising €30 (1.25%), and although the soya complex has remained relatively rangebound recently, the other components of CMRs (coconut oil, hydrolysed gluten and dextrose) remain extremely difficult to source and eye-wateringly expensive.


So where do we go from here? Some traders reckon we’ll see a few more bob out of both markets, but the return from summer holidays usually turns the autumn market significantly north, so buying forward on a gently decreasing market generally averages out better than chasing a sharply rising market.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

To be honest, the market is all over the place, varying widely between countries and even regions. Sweet whey is quoted unchanged in Holland, but slightly easier in outlying markets. Feed grade skim milk powder has however recorded a modest €10 decrease under last week’s value, but remains essentially unchanged for the last month.


The root of the demise in whey seems to be the Chinese market, which was saturated with imports in H1, with desperate traders now offloading whatever they can at levels below €920 DAP China, €10 below the Dutch delivered price, and never mind the €100 shipping it cost to get it there.


The prediction made at the end of June that we’d probably see the whey market slide until mid July looks like it may have been robust, as it has been abandoned by buyers. The soy complex has stabilised over the last week and doesn’t look about to break, and winter dairy campaigns are gearing up, so there’s few significant factors that could push the milk powder markets lower as things currently stand.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

It seems our friends the cheese processors were telling porkies about how much sweet whey they didn’t have, as they ran the market up in the spring. They’re now chucking any amount at the market, way (sorry) in excess of current cheese production, which is still in semi-lockdown mode and summer is never peak production anyway. The Dutch market posts another €30 drop this week, and other markets are following suit. However, skim milk powder posted a third week at unchanged levels, and that market is much more in balance in terms of limited supply and muted demand.


On the face of it, the market should continue in free fall, as buyers are scarce and especially traders are desperate to physically move long (and probably wrong) books, and as sorry as we feel for them, we must recognise that the soya complex is still riding high, especially for soya oil, pegging palm and coconut up with it.


I was hearing yesterday that the record temperatures in Canada have not only ravaged the canola crop, but also linseed, so the hoped-for new-crop pressure looks scuppered for the northern hemisphere for oilseeds, at least. With this firm protein market backdrop, whey looks unlikely to continue its lonely downward trajectory too much longer.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com