Greg's Milk Monitor 20 December 2024: Christmas truce

This is a short one, due to little market intelligence. In short, sweet whey was posted down €10 this week, but no one seems to know where they got that price from, as there is zero change in the lack of offers in an ostensibly unchanged market. Skim milk is a healthy 1% lower (-€30) but is counteracted by yet more price increase and further tightening in supply of, you name it, fat filled whey (up €30-60), whey protein concentrate, and delactosed whey.

Wider markets are generally on the slide, soy oil in particular, down from 43 cents to 39 on concerns quite what will happen to US biodiesel subsidies on January 20th, amongst other things. Palm has finally taken a battering, as the below graph illustrates, as the move from B35 to B40 comes in January is trumped by falling exports. Not that this has dented refined palm oil prices, which again supports higher CMR price levels.

And with that I’ll sign off for the year, at least from reporting sparse market information, and wish you the very best for a joyful Christmas and a happy, prosperous and above all things, a healthy New Year.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 13 December 2024: Multidirectional

Call me a geek, but the one thing that always fascinates me in a factory visit is the forklift, but that’s another story. The multidirectional I refer to is the current milk powder market, as strange forces are at play.

Skim fell a notable 2% this week, down €50 to €2500, but whey remains stubbornly unchanged at €880. Whilst there are now plentiful offers of skim, processors are holding the line on whey price and discounts are nowhere to be seen. The troubles for the blender remain, in that availability for important components like whey protein concentrate is difficult, whilst delactosed whey is downright impossible to find, and the price for every additional ingredient remains high or is still rising. 

Taking a look back at the year, it hasn’t been the best for the trading community, save for the dawn raid they made on sweet whey at the beginning of the summer holidays. 

Skim milk shows an even tighter price banding and is also virtually a re-run of 2023, with traders only enjoying harvesting some arbitrage in Q3.

Background markets have been dull, soya is still hanging at the $10 bushel level, despite the downward indicators, palm is finally down a few percent but still not responding to cheaper soft oils, and geopolitics still hold crude oil at $70 a barrel. The only brighter spot for the UK is the pound is enjoying a spell as the least unfavourable currency, as the poor old euro is getting a pasting. 

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 5 December 2024: No change (sort of)

Perhaps skim and whey have run out of runway for this cycle of manipulation, both unchanged in a week that has seen more buying than selling, as the order book is now well out into mid January. However, that is not the whole story, as although the sarsen stones of the dairy industry remain unchanged (and guess who has been stuck on the A303 this week gawping at Stonehenge), following on from last week’s rises, buttermilk has risen €200, whey permeate by €150 and whey protein concentrate by €150. So I don’t think any recent purchases will look embarrassing until deep into Q1 at least.

Background markets are broadly unchanged, beans, meal and soy oil all broadly unchanged, not what one would expect in a week that forecasters foresee the largest crop the planet has ever seen, and absent from the arbitrage the trading tribe require. The notable exception is palm oil, which has returned to its 5000 ringitts peak as heavier than usual rain is depleting Malaysian inventories.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com