Greg's Milk Monitor 20 June 2025: Chinese Whispers

Whey is down €10, skim down €20. While the latter is a genuine supply:demand adjustment, the former is a downright lie, as the reality of purchase price in France is now €70 over published Dutch levels, equal to the haulage differential between Holland and Brittany.

China has been raised again, but in three different markets; some say US product is so incredibly cheap that EU whey doesn’t get a look-in, others that Austria is exporting whey east, and this week’s star story, that Byelorussia is the runaway cheapest seller in China. Whilst one swallow doesn’t make a summer, one container does make a market, so who knows, all three single container sales may be true.

Skim has adjusted to genuine market dynamics, as we see CMR orders decline as peak spring milk supply increase, but it will probably be the other side of the August market lull before we see any seismic change.

Other markets are firm, given current geopolitics. Crude oil is now unsurprisingly 20% up on the month, but still 10% lower year-on-year, which seems strange given the relative stability then compared to the actual firefight now happening. Soy oil enjoyed one limit-up session on Friday 13th and close to a second early this week, rising from 46 cents to near 55 cents, where it remains. Palm oil got in on the action too, now up to 4150 ringitts from 3700 in May. 

Sterling isn’t helping out either, now just sub €1.17 and unlikely to excite while jobless and GDP figures disappoint and inflation remaining high isn’t stoking interest rate rise speculation.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 07801 308054 or greg@bdc-agri.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 12 June 2025: Ditto last week

I’ll admit I slept through the Pokemon movie while on parental duty all those years ago, but apparently I missed a character called ‘Ditto’

It’s ‘ditto last week’ in as far as the Dutch and German markets for sweet whey are posted unchanged at €810, the actual traded price in France is now €60 over that, if you can find physical offers. Here’s two graphs to try and explain what’s going on; First up is my old favourite, US v. Dutch, which shows that whilst the US whey did fall out of bed before the tariff disruption, it has hiked since, whilst the inexplicable prices quoted in Holland drift lower.

The second graph shows just how little information there is reported in the French market, with not a single red mark for 2025.

If you want a conspiracy theory, and all the feed grade sweet whey isn't being whistled away for processing into WPC, could it be that traders are putting whey into store at whatever they can buy at, while posting ‘unchanged’ traded prices to the milk press, ahead of an almighty autumn hike?

As far as skim milk is concerned, the market is another €10 higher at €2450, but it has returned to an albeit tiny discount to edible grade. However, it is readily available at the price, unlike the whey market.

Other markets are dull, crude oil is 5% up on the month, as is soya oil, whilst the UK’s 0.3% GDP decline in April has knocked the back wheels off sterling, proof if it was needed that the hike in employer national insurance combined with UK exports to the US crashing after the ‘Freedom Day’ tariffs hasn’t been kind to the national economy.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 07801 308054 or greg@bdc-agri.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 6 June 2025: All about the whey

Another week of contraindications, as we see whey fall and skim rise, whilst the supplies of same remain difficult for whey and easier for skim, quite extraordinary.

Skim is reported to have fallen by €20 (-2.1%) to an unbelievable €810, whilst skim rose €10 (+0.5%) to €2440. The fundamental problem facing ongoing sweet whey is that its status as a byproduct is being threatened by the ever increasing demand for protein by the health industry, from those who seek to gain body mass and those wishing to lose it. Flat demand for cheese is hampering production of whey, and the margins for further processing it into concentrate far outweigh the returns from the humble feed market, so the market forces dictating its price seem to have changed permanently. So securing feed grade supply anywhere near the lower alleged market remains challenging.

Skim milk powder has surprised with its uptick, as there seems ample supply and little upward price pressure. Whey concentrate of any stripe is plain unavailable with no sign of increased production coming online. 

The soya market continues to surprise with its lack of fundamental weakness, fuelled by poor Chinese demand, a bin-busting Brazilian crop and US plantings surging ahead at a cracking pace. Crude oil is back up into the mid $60 range with Black Sea tensions on the rise again, and both soy and palm oil are holding steady.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 07801 308054 or greg@bdc-agri.com