Greg's Milk Monitor 23 January 2025: Market underreporting

Frankly, things are in a muddle in milk powders. Whey price is underreported and difficult to find, skim is unchanged and showing signs of turning north, WPC is unavailable, as is fat-filled whey, and even refined palm oil has turned north again, while coconut oil continues into the stratosphere.

Whey is quoted unchanged on the Dutch market, but this is at least €20 lower than the cheapest available supply, and then some. Skim has remained unchanged since Christmas Day, but what were ample supplies are tightening quickly. The foot and mouth outbreak in Germany has brought the shutters down on milk powder exports, which has compounded an already serious supply line hiatus on processed milk powders.

Current production time is 20 working days, as brisk demand for milk replacers continues to apply upward pressure on everything. The huge gulf between US and Dutch whey prices certainly suggests there is no respite for European prices anytime soon.

Not that background markets have any connection with the current milk powder muddle, but the soy complex has spiked in a minor way on Argentinian crop fears. However, soy oil has ticked down whilst meal added $15, and crude palm oil fell back as it is uncompetitive against soy and sunflower oil, and even the biodiesel mandate hasn’t supported it, after a certain populist politician said ‘Drill, baby, drill’ and pulled 5% out of crude oil prices.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 20 December 2024: Christmas truce

This is a short one, due to little market intelligence. In short, sweet whey was posted down €10 this week, but no one seems to know where they got that price from, as there is zero change in the lack of offers in an ostensibly unchanged market. Skim milk is a healthy 1% lower (-€30) but is counteracted by yet more price increase and further tightening in supply of, you name it, fat filled whey (up €30-60), whey protein concentrate, and delactosed whey.

Wider markets are generally on the slide, soy oil in particular, down from 43 cents to 39 on concerns quite what will happen to US biodiesel subsidies on January 20th, amongst other things. Palm has finally taken a battering, as the below graph illustrates, as the move from B35 to B40 comes in January is trumped by falling exports. Not that this has dented refined palm oil prices, which again supports higher CMR price levels.

And with that I’ll sign off for the year, at least from reporting sparse market information, and wish you the very best for a joyful Christmas and a happy, prosperous and above all things, a healthy New Year.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 13 December 2024: Multidirectional

Call me a geek, but the one thing that always fascinates me in a factory visit is the forklift, but that’s another story. The multidirectional I refer to is the current milk powder market, as strange forces are at play.

Skim fell a notable 2% this week, down €50 to €2500, but whey remains stubbornly unchanged at €880. Whilst there are now plentiful offers of skim, processors are holding the line on whey price and discounts are nowhere to be seen. The troubles for the blender remain, in that availability for important components like whey protein concentrate is difficult, whilst delactosed whey is downright impossible to find, and the price for every additional ingredient remains high or is still rising. 

Taking a look back at the year, it hasn’t been the best for the trading community, save for the dawn raid they made on sweet whey at the beginning of the summer holidays. 

Skim milk shows an even tighter price banding and is also virtually a re-run of 2023, with traders only enjoying harvesting some arbitrage in Q3.

Background markets have been dull, soya is still hanging at the $10 bushel level, despite the downward indicators, palm is finally down a few percent but still not responding to cheaper soft oils, and geopolitics still hold crude oil at $70 a barrel. The only brighter spot for the UK is the pound is enjoying a spell as the least unfavourable currency, as the poor old euro is getting a pasting. 

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com