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Welcome to the BDC agri blog. Here you will find reports from some of the events we attend, as well as Greg's popular weekly view of the UK milk and whey powders market:

 

"Many years ago, I got my first job in the dairy industry, as class milk monitor at Tollesbury Primary School.
I thought it was a job for life, but sadly Margaret Thatcher famously ‘snatched’ free school milk,
and the nation’s health has suffered since. Fifty-four years later, I am still musing on the dairy industry,
with an irreverent view of politics and currency ..." G
reg Dunn

Sweet whey flatlined again this week, but skim milk surprised with a €30 hike. Looking at skim, I must admit to having had my eye off the ball for the Dutch production figures, that were giving cause for concern as they plunged during early autumn last year. Because the December line doesn’t feature on the graph, the huge jump from 4,700 tonnes to 7,300 tonnes for the month was a real game-changer, and might explain why the skim market fell €200 since the beginning of the year. 



The biggest influence in background markets is undoubtedly crude oil, with the benchmark US indicator now down to $78, from its Israel/Iran peak of $90. Whilst US soybean futures have remained pretty much unchanged, hanging on to a minor story about striking stevedores in Argentina in the face of Brazil stealing the lion’s share of the Chinese market, soy oil has dipped another 6% plus this week, most of that in the last two sessions. Thus the spillover into biofuel mandates forcing vegoils south. 

 

The palm oil market is still being selective in which metrics it is subscribing to, ignoring a seismic reduction in Indian imports, as cheaper sunflower oil continues to dominate 

 

News from the sales side of milk powders/blends is that demand is brisk, far more than in Q1, so whilst a lot of milk is being processed, stocks wouldn’t appear to be building enough to force either whey or skim downwards, so we may see equilibrium for a month yet. Unless, of course, ‘events’ prove otherwise. 


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.


For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com




 

Preparations are full-on at BDC agri HQ, getting ready for the biennial Pig & Poultry Fair at the NEC, Birmingham on 15-16 May, where we’re promoting PIDOLin PCa for layers, C4A-L for turkeys and Lacto Production milk powders.

 

Greg and the BDC agri team will be on Stand 342 in Hall 10 - near the Innovation Theatre - where you can be sure of a warm welcome. So do come along and say 'hello', take the weight off your feet and enjoy some refreshments with us.


We look forward to seeing you there!


For directions and further information, visit the Pig & Poultry Fair website.



Another short report this week, whey unchanged, skim up an imperceptible €10. Only hydrolysed gluten supply has gone critical recently, but all milk powders are in balance. The balance is significant, as off take has continued to be brisk, as is the supply of spring milk. 

 

I’ve already used the Groundhog Year soubriquet recently, but these charts certainly show the almost identical factors in play, this year over last. The question is, how much of both skim and whey is stockpiling through the milk glut?







Soya oil is broadly unchanged this week, up slightly, but palm oil has crashed by 15% during April so far. The biofuel influence isn’t bearish, as although crude oil has dropped well below the recent $90 a barrel, the Iran/Israel crisis never really got factored in to biofuel.

 

Sterling has recovered a little from the bashing the markets gave the bearish interest rate signals coming from the BoE, but generally feels uncomfortable above €1.17 or $1.25.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.


For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com



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