Greg's Milk Monitor 5 December 2024: No change (sort of)

Perhaps skim and whey have run out of runway for this cycle of manipulation, both unchanged in a week that has seen more buying than selling, as the order book is now well out into mid January. However, that is not the whole story, as although the sarsen stones of the dairy industry remain unchanged (and guess who has been stuck on the A303 this week gawping at Stonehenge), following on from last week’s rises, buttermilk has risen €200, whey permeate by €150 and whey protein concentrate by €150. So I don’t think any recent purchases will look embarrassing until deep into Q1 at least.

Background markets are broadly unchanged, beans, meal and soy oil all broadly unchanged, not what one would expect in a week that forecasters foresee the largest crop the planet has ever seen, and absent from the arbitrage the trading tribe require. The notable exception is palm oil, which has returned to its 5000 ringitts peak as heavier than usual rain is depleting Malaysian inventories.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 29 November 2024: Twin peaks

Getting milk powders out of the way, skim rose €20 this week and sweet whey only €10. However, the opposite dynamic is in play, as one has to stump up €20-30 over the market to secure spot contracts for whey, whilst skim is easily discounted by roughly the same amount.

In the absence of anything much to write about in skim and whey, whilst looking round the markets this week, I noticed a perfect symmetry in the price graph for US soybean oil, in July and November (for readers of fewer advanced years, Twin Peaks was a bonkers US gothic horror mystery from the early 90s, and I suspect not worthy of revisiting). The graph reveals hitting peaks of nearly 50 cents early in the month, and barely over 40 cents by the end, the first being a weather market, the second a geopolitical one. I mention this as bean oil and palm oil have diverged dramatically, the latter rising a good 5% in the last ten days on excessive rainfall in Indonesia.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 14 November 2024: The view from the booth

Well that was a surprise - sweet whey up €20, skim milk €30. But why? I include the above picture as this is the Lacto Production stand at Eurotier in Hannover, and no fewer than six traders called by relaying the same news; someone somewhere has paid €960 for Q1 whey. This always happens at these bourses, funny how trader gossip never brings the market down!

Out in the real world, offers of whey have reduced, but skim is still readily offered at unchanged levels, so there is still no real feeling for a runaway market. 

Interesting to see sweet whey finish the year, bang on the same price three years running.

It was also interesting to see how the mood changed in agri markets to Trump retaking the throne. Soy oil shot up on the prospect of extra tariffs, but then fell back when folk realised that climate-change denying was going to plunge demand for biofuel as mandates are likely to be dumped. Likewise palm oil, which had got to ridiculous price levels, and have only just come off the top by a piddling amount.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com