Greg's Milk Monitor 29 May 2025: Markets rising

There’s irony in both reported skim and whey prices this week, as the two drift in separate directions. Whey is allegedly down €10, whilst there are few offers even above the posted Dutch market level, whilst more freely offered skim milk rises €20, returning to the unprecedented premium of €40 over edible grade. Work both those out, if you can.

Fat filled whey with coconut continues to increase, as do premixes and even packaging, so price pressures are still upward even though the two major components are muted. The only ingredient that has eased slightly is fat filled whey with palm.

In other news, the US court order that the Trump administration tariffs are mostly illegal has lifted most markets, including crude oil, and bolstered the US$, but it has yet to pass the Supreme Court, who are more easily influenced by their champion, so next week we will probably see markets going the other way. Soy oil is back on the up due to resurgent hopes for long term biodiesel mandates, and palm oil has followed suit. 

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 22 May 2025: Keeping shtum

Apparently, the pretty much universal finger-on-lips sign can be traced back to Ancient Rome and probably before that, and it is certainly being employed by traders and processors alike in the milk processing sector, as there is simply no news to pick up on.

Sweet whey and skim remain unchanged this week, the situation for nearly a month. Feed grade skim is still €20 dearer than the edible stuff and whey is still hard to find at the alleged market price. Lactose and WPC35 remain simply unavailable, with offers over €1100 and €3000 demanded before processors will even pick up the phone. 

Fortunately, balancing that, animal feed demand in the EU has fallen back, and China is still out of the international markets for sweet whey. Milk production in France has been decreasing for the last two months, but the UK situation is quite the reverse, with April production 6% ahead of last year. The UK milk-to-feed price ratio heavily favours maximum production and we have certainly seen CMR demand continue at winter pace.

Looking at skim production versus price, there is no correlation from the below graphs that supports any prediction, but the worryingly dry spring could significantly reduce liquid milk supply going on into the summer 

At least we have seen a reversal in the refined palm market, now as much as €300 below the December peak, but coconut oil continues its stratospheric rise.

Soya oil has taken a recent battering, as the US biofuel mandates that were thought to be a done deal until 2031 are now doubtful, and the US:China trade talks cooling off have pulled meal, beans and oil off a few dollar/cents. The shock UK inflation hike has failed to lift the £:€ but the £:$ enjoys a three year high.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 15 May 2025: Winners and losers

Both skim and whey are unchanged this week, as the not inconsiderable equal and opposing forces of supply and demand hold the market steady.

Whilst the picture shows who’s winning the battle for sweet whey supply, the feed industry is certainly the loser. The fact that WPC was developed to be a cheap protein alternative to expensive skim milk is now history, as WPC 35 has now surpassed skim by over €700, with supply still painfully scarce. The main reason is that processors are filling their towers with orders for WPC 80, and no wonder, as that little 500g packet above is retailing for £16. B2B prices have topped €15/kg in bulk, and this is starving WPC 35 and more so, the supply of feed grade for a humble €840.

This headlong rush into super-concentrated whey may of course end up in tears, as the edible market could end up in oversupply as it did with infant milk formula, so the pipeline for feed grade whey could become much easier. But hopes for deep discounting are pretty dim, given the price of liquid milk and the downturn in cheese production.

Feed grade skim milk is still a ridiculous €40 premium to edible grade, which is strange, given the decline in CMR demand and also a hike in the edible price of €20 this week.

Apart from the dearth of WPC35, the only other current headache for the milk powder blender is lactose, which is odd, as it used to be cheap as chips and easily available, but is now a premium to whey and with fewer processors in the market, and poor edible demand, stocks have disappeared.

In other markets, crude oil dipped into the high $50s last week, but the oil barons’ ball that is going on in the Middle East this week seems to have put a bit of backbone back into OPEC. Having said that, the House of Representatives is signing off a biofuel mandate that last until 2031, which put wind back in the sails of soy oil, shooting it back up into the low 50 cents range, but the reality of the huge South American crop has pulled it down into the high 40s again.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com