4 July 2024: Traders, eh?

On the face of it, both skim and whey are unchanged, well, skim is down €10, so nothing, but there are rumblings of change. 

The German market is an unusual bellwether for market movement, but it is undercutting the headline Dutch market by about €20 on both products, and is some albeit scant evidence that producers recognise things are backing up in the warehouse. 

I’m told that there is much more of everything being offered by producers, permeate, whey and skim, but trader prices remain resolutely unchanged, presumably in the hope of shorting the market and buying in against sales when they switch horses and pull the plug. 

Looking at producer fundamentals, cheese prices are holding fair across Europe, so cheaper whey won’t unduly worry producers, but they’re never comfortable below the cost of production. Skim on the other hand is the byproduct of soaring butter prices, so it looks like there may be some slack in the byproduct.

 Background markets are gently firm, with crude oil steadily in the $80 bracket, with palm oil spiking due to an extraordinary mandate from the Indonesian government for 40% biofuel in diesel next year. That’s going to work, then, when the fatty acids eat the head gaskets…….

Oh, and I did look, there were apparently between six and eighteen yellow Reliant Regal Supervans used in the Only Fools and Horses franchise!

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

27 June 2024: Action replay

No big news this week, sweet whey unchanged but skim milk up €20. 

What is striking is the overlay of 2024 prices largely blanking out last year’s for both products

Nothing fundamental has changed, sellers are still strong, no discounts, but wheat gluten is back to full supply with no weakening in price. 

Other noteworthy markets are crude oil and wheat, which has plunged 22% in the past month in the US, on increased crop forecast, but globally the figure has decreased, with Russia reducing by 5mt and Ukraine by 1.5mt, due to the cold wet spring. Maize is down by half that amount and soybeans by 5%. Crude oil is still holding in the $80s, supporting both soy oil and palm.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

20 June 2024: Double vision?

I’ll admit diplopia is a new word to me, but the double vision I refer to is the fact there are two markets for sweet whey, the actual and the reported. Dutch markets are posted as unchanged at €650 for the fifth week in a row, but try going out and actually buying some, as sellers are bullish and asking prices over the market. Things are quiet in skim milk, with the market unchanged again this week, and certainly no discounting going on for off grades. 

A bit of a chart heavy week, but looking at the fundamentals behind whey and skim production, let’s look at a couple of sample indicators each. Whey first, price is holding stable for Gouda in the EU-27, whilst a sample chart for mozzarella production in Italy shows the seasonal pattern intact, so no immediate signs of supply or price pressure for whey, just bullish sellers.

Looking at skimmed milk, there was a sharp reversal in butter production in Holland during April, triggered no doubt by much more handsome prices. This hopefully indicates that the supply of skim milk is in balance with continuing brisk demand for milk powder blends, and therefore prices are unlikely to shoot up in the near future, but equally unlikely to decline significantly.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com