I stand by last week’s comment that the mid August rush back to work will probably ignite the traditionally bullish autumn market, and this has been evidenced by this week's unchanged price for sweet whey on the headline Dutch market, and a €15 increase in Germany. OK, skim milk has fallen an impressive €100 over the week (-2.7%), and whilst processors howl that they’re short of liquid milk, and stumping up ever higher numbers to secure supply (50p/l now in UK), there seems to be spot oversupply of skim milk powder.
As previously suggested, this may be the backside of processor greed, chasing the market to record levels before releasing stock that was deliberated held back to starve the market. Of course, buyers of skim based product have held back as prices fall, but the market has fallen less than 10% since the April highs, compared to the nigh on 40% collapse in whey, and if the post holiday purchase jamboree starts, processors and especially traders will have no problem turning skim prices north again.
And please watch background markets, as the soy complex has risen sharply for beans, stayed muted for oil, but broken the record for soymeal, which is just breasting $500/tonne, on the back of extreme heat and drought in the midwest. Palm oil has enjoyed a comeback, supported by Black Sea vegoil uncertainties, and coconut oil is remaining stubbornly in the $2500-3000 bracket (currently $2650).
Putting all lot into the pot and stirring it suggests to me that milk powders will follow the herd north, and I repeat my mantra, owning bookings will be more valuable than picking the imaginary bottom of the market.
BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.
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