Greg's Milk Monitor 20 June 2025: Chinese Whispers

Whey is down €10, skim down €20. While the latter is a genuine supply:demand adjustment, the former is a downright lie, as the reality of purchase price in France is now €70 over published Dutch levels, equal to the haulage differential between Holland and Brittany.

China has been raised again, but in three different markets; some say US product is so incredibly cheap that EU whey doesn’t get a look-in, others that Austria is exporting whey east, and this week’s star story, that Byelorussia is the runaway cheapest seller in China. Whilst one swallow doesn’t make a summer, one container does make a market, so who knows, all three single container sales may be true.

Skim has adjusted to genuine market dynamics, as we see CMR orders decline as peak spring milk supply increase, but it will probably be the other side of the August market lull before we see any seismic change.

Other markets are firm, given current geopolitics. Crude oil is now unsurprisingly 20% up on the month, but still 10% lower year-on-year, which seems strange given the relative stability then compared to the actual firefight now happening. Soy oil enjoyed one limit-up session on Friday 13th and close to a second early this week, rising from 46 cents to near 55 cents, where it remains. Palm oil got in on the action too, now up to 4150 ringitts from 3700 in May. 

Sterling isn’t helping out either, now just sub €1.17 and unlikely to excite while jobless and GDP figures disappoint and inflation remaining high isn’t stoking interest rate rise speculation.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 07801 308054 or greg@bdc-agri.com