Greg's Milk Monitor 25 April 2025: More confusion

There’s more conflict than clarity in milk powder markets, in a week that saw potentially 245% tariffs being slapped on by China, and Donald Trump signalling he’d like talks about a trade deal.

Sweet whey climbed €10 against expectations, and skim fell by the same amount. There might be sense in these moves, as the Chinese have beaten a path to the European door to escape whatever tariff the White House decides to apply this week, lifting prices, but US processors have signalled that they will slash and burn prices to keep the S E Asian market, so the US market remains in free fall (the graph on shows the Q1 prices, before ‘Liberation Day’ on 3rd April)

Even if tariffs have a neutral effect on sweet whey, demand for edible whey protein concentrate is still increasing, diverting ever greater quantities for processing and limiting the supply to the feed sector. This is double-edged as far as CMRs are concerned, as although is might life whey prices, the chronic shortage of WPC is easing, and hopefully price with it. Considering WPC was developed as a cheap alternative to skim milk protein, but now commands a €300 premium, it seem unsustainable at the price level, but on the other hand, WPC has revalued itself as the go-to source for increasingly popular dairy protein only CMRs.

Skim has however returned to an oversupply situation, the flip side of withholding material to force the market higher. Downgrades are more freely available so we could see further declines into the later spring. But taking the whole basket of ingredients, and the unpredictable global political landscape, a wholesale slide in values does not look at all imminent, whilst increase looks more probable.

Crude oil is back on the downside, as OPEC members break ranks to flood the market, but soyabean oil is back up to nigh on 50 cents, nearly 20% higher over the last month. Palm oil has been revalued as the cheapest cooking medium and has turned upwards after the losses this week.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com