12 September 2019: My prediction of easing values later in Q4 still holds

It is tempting to say one couldn’t write this stuff, but I have to, so here goes. The game of Cowboys and Indians in Westminster continues, with even the Sheriff handing in his badge, but I will confine my comments to the effects on sterling.


Currency has remained surprisingly stable, even buoyant on each government defeat (I can’t believe I’m writing this, it’s bonkers to see the money markets reacting to a Conservative administration the way they used to react to the loony left Labour brigade!), so even if the Supreme Court chuck out the Scottish judges' ruling the prorogation illegal, and the politicos are twiddling their thumbs until 15th October, the markets will likely only react to deal/no deal news or rumours, despite the deepening gloom of potential recession in Europe.


Whey is still flatlining, but my prediction of easing values later in Q4 still holds. This week saw news of 50k sows slaughtered in the Philippines, so the ASF crisis is still building.


However, skim is sharply up this week, with buyers throwing in the towel and jubilant sellers saying ’told you so!’ The edible market in Holland is up €70 in two weeks and feed grade SMP up €60 over the same period. Lacto Production have tried to limit the pain, but prices are up.


Talk with the milk powder companies at SPACE in Rennes on Tuesday and Dairy Day in Telford yesterday was dominated by expectations of a continuing bull run in skim, and consequently few shared my bearish view on forward whey.


BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products. For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

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