11 June 2021: If you don’t want to know the score, look away now …

This won’t be an easy read. The considered opinion of the milk powder market, in France at least, is that it's jiggered for the next year.

Lacto Production attended a food industry expo in Rennes this week, and the almost united view amongst a dozen milk processors is that the milk powder market will remain in undersupply possibly well into the first half of 2022. Here is some of the reasoning offered:

• Milk is at peak production, and only down 0.5% on last year

• Usual stock building of milk powders during the spring isn’t happening, thus continuing squeeze into next winter

• Sweet whey demand from China has allegedly decreased

• Veal production has decreased, reducing demand for sweet whey

• Larger quantities of liquid whey are going for whey protein concentrate for bodybuilding

• Middle market traders are offering to buy H1 2022 sweet whey powder at €960, just €70 under spot values

Given the overall reduction in demand is still not acting on price during peak production is extremely concerning for the autumn and winter markets. Soya meal may have tumbled $70 since the second peak during May, but bean oil is still the wrong side of 70 cents, and it is that market which palm oil and coconut oil price off, so the bigger picture will remain related to the global protein complex.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

3 June 2021: Unchanged again ...

Although the market is nominally unchanged, it still remains stubbornly firm, and whey posted €10 higher in Holland this week.

Looking back at the rise, the lows were in August last year, and whey has risen €400/tonne since then, €200 of which has been since the start of the year. Likewise, skim milk has risen €600 over the period, commensurately €300 since January. Whey derivatives and off grades are more readily available but full spec material remains difficult to find, and producers normally contracting forward have moved to spot sales.

So, no sign of this market breaking yet, and soya oil and palm are still going loopy (bean oil breasting $0.70 cents this evening), there’s precious little chance of a break soon.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

27 May 2021: Market unchanged, but firm

Whilst sweet whey sits tight for a week, skim is still on the march north, and there are a few morsels of market intel.

Whilst whey still isn’t freely offered, some of the derivatives are coming out of the woodwork, which is usually a sign of a change of market direction. Acid whey and whey permeate are now finding their way onto the market but lactose, the new darling of Chinese import demand, is still tight.

Skim milk posts another €10 higher for edible grade and is ostensibly unchanged for feed, but the market is even tighter on supply after a 15,000 tonne parcel was snapped up for top dollar by Algeria.

Sterling has seemingly recovered from Brexit squabbles, with Cummings’ mudslinging at the weasels in Toad Hall having no palpable effect on exchange rates.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com