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4 January 2024: A strange balance

Happy New Year!

Markets remain unchanged, whilst traders still seem to be enjoying the beach in Goa. I doubt it will last long, as supplies are still next to non-existent, but demand remains muted after a very brisk Q4. Producers want a higher market, traders don’t care as long as there’s arbitrage and buyers expect waning demand to force the market lower. On balance, I’ll go out on a bough and predict this year won’t see the new year slump and we’ll be off to the races again, with higher prices, certainly for milk powder blends.

In other markets, crude oil has put on a good 10% since trouble in the Gulf erupted, and a cursory look at shows an enormous increase of shipping rounding the Cape, with the attendant increase in price of $400-500 per container. However, for once, the biodiesel influence has retreated, as the whole soya complex is down, with meal solidly below $400 and oil back down into the 40 cent department, on the back of every South American soya producing country posting enormous increases in their 2024 crop forecast, outweighing a predicted record increase in bean demand from China.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or

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