9 December 2021: Next Slide Please ...

Updated: Dec 16, 2021

In an attempt worthy of a prime minister to divert attention from my inability to call a market, the graphs make below interesting, if grim, viewing. The markets have risen again this week, sweet whey up by €20 (1.7%) and skim milk by €30 (1%), but physical supply has been plentiful, normally the benchmark for a decrease.

Skim milk is perhaps the most fascinating graph, in that the trend line for 2019 and this year are almost perfectly parallel, separated by a €750 premium. The correction seen through the spring in 2020 will if anything come later in 2022, as orders are still buoyant, despite the eye-watering cost.

Whey powder has been a game of two halves between 2019 and 2021, with 2020 pretty much flatlining. What has been the common factor in both markets since August has been the undersupply of liquid milk. If it is as little as 1-2% reduction, it is staggering that the price effect has been so savage, but it is probable that the true reduction is greater than 2% combined with processors not being shy to push prices skywards through the autumn.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 381521 or g.dunn@blackdiamondcommodities.com

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